No sport in America has ever been as popular as football is today. The NFL season started two weeks ago and it is already dominating sports media coverage. Last year’s Super Bowl was viewed by 106 million people according to Neilsen, making it the most watched television event ever. Fantasy Football – an online game based on what happens in the real NFL – is an entire business unto itself. Despite the apparent stranglehold the NFL has on the American sporting world, it is almost certainly headed for a lockout after this season. In the past 16 years, the MLB, NBA and NHL have all had work stoppages due to lockouts, and it looks like it’s the NFL’s turn now.
“On a scale of 1 to 10, it’s a 14,” said NFL Players Association (NFLPA) executive director DeMaurice Smith on the likelihood of a work stoppage. According to Dave Zirin, Smith said this to Chad Ochocinco at the NFL draft in April. Not much has changed since then. If the league’s owners and the NFLPA can’t come to an agreement over a new collective bargaining agreement, there will be no NFL next September.
So what are millions of strung-out football junkies going to do if there is no NFL next year? Would other professional football leagues such as the UFL (United Football League) and the AFL (Arena Football League) pick up the slack? Short answer: probably not. The leagues are mostly comprised of has-beens –-such as Jim Fassel, who led the NY Giants to the Super Bowl in 2000, now coaches the UFL’s Las Vegas Locomotives—and many more never was-es. In addition to that, because these teams can’t compete with NFL teams they are confined to many small markets. The UFL has teams in Hartford and Omaha and the AFL has teams in Des Moines and Shreveport, LA. This is not conducive to attracting fan bases from NFL teams.
One of the wildest and most interesting scenarios would be ripped right from the pages of Hollywood. If there is a work stoppage, there could still be an NFL, just without people from the NFLPA. Keanu Reeves and Jon Favreau wouldn’t be playing but the thought of a league made up of replacement players is exciting. It would be very difficult to cross NFL picket lines and the talent pool would be so shallow that no one would probably be that interested. It is certainly worth a thought, just for the absurdity factor.
The most plausible scenario in a nuclear winter, post-NFL world is College Football. It would become the most popular sport in America, at least for next year. The talent pool is very deep; there are dozens of all-pro NFL players developing in the NCAA. The competition is fierce and the game is steeped in tradition. Most of the coverage of the sport is similar to a professional sport. As evidenced by Reggie Bush recently giving up his Heisman Trophy due to violating his amateur status while at USC, it seems that most of the players act as professionals as well. Don’t be surprised if next September, Saturdays replace Sundays as the most important day of the sports week.
Just for clarification– many of the AFL teams are moving to larger markets. They just expanded 4 franchises for next season in Pitt, Philly, San Jose and Kansas City. In fact, Bossier doesn’t even exist anymore; they’ve relocated to New Orleans.
If a lockout occurs, you will see many NCAA college teams scrambling schedules for Sunday games. Great opportunities for exposure and revenue. The AFL plays in Spring, opposite the NFL schedule. However, I hear that some AFL teams are going to experiment with Outdoor games this year which will be played in larger venues, with up to 35,000 fans. Perhaps posturing for a possible strike. As stated, more of the teams this year are in major markets, with the exception of the Champs, Spokane. While the UFL is played during the Fall season, only 6 teams and this will limit the excitement with only a limited number of matchups.
I like your analogy to the Replacements, but this isn’t Hollywood and I don’t see someone like a Jeff Garcia from the AFL being a Keanu Reeves and taking his team to the big game. But I agree with you that NFL Sundays will be like a long hangover from the fun filled college Saturdays that already exist. Losing Monday Night Football would probably hit fans the hardest. Men and women get through their first, and possibly the worst, day of their work week by looking forward to the Monday night game. Sure College Football provides continuous competitive football on Thursday nights and Saturdays, but it lacks the athleticism that the NFL brings to the table. If you believe that college football does have comparable athleticism then you must ask why not all college players make it to the big time? Some of what college football lacks in athleticism can be made up for in school spirit and competitive rivalries but not all of it. The NFL owners need to offer more guaranteed money in their contracts like the MLB and NBA do if they want a season next year. Like you mentioned earlier the NFL is America’s sport and Baseball is America’s past time. NFL live on ESPN is the only program that is broadcast throughout the entire year analyzing players and teams. Unlike the NBA or MLB a shortened NFL season would not work since there are only 16 games total in the regular season thus giving meaning to every game. If the players and owners can’t come to some agreement we will be looking at the 2011 season as the season that never was.